Today's head line says
Pakistan Taliban: Peshawar school
attack leaves 141 dead
So who benefits from this attack?
Don’t tell me you think that Taliban benefits
from this sad event.
Does PakTaliban believe that they can bully
Pakistan Army? Can’t they see that they are going to get a backlash?
Could there be more to it than what meets the eye?...
let’s hypothesize there is more to it.
Let’s go back in time, and try and to re-create a
secret discussion between USA and Pakistan.
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USA : We want you
to curb these Taliban folks from operating on your soil.
PAKISTAN: We too
want to limit their powers - they are a threat to us. These folks are becoming
too powerful and have been able to galvanise the public sentiment. We won't be
surprised if they win elections. Once they do that, they will elect the Army
head / entire hierarchy of their choice. Once they are in full control, I don’t
know what they will do with the nukes, but I am sure it will lead Pakistan to
destruction.
USA: Why don't you clip their
wings right now, the way we did? If we can come in Pakistan and kill Osama, you
can certainly do better- if you want to.
PAKISTAN: Public sympathy
is a big problem. They have informers even among Police, Army and Intelligence
agencies to help them, Local media highlights our actions as human rights
violations. ISI is dominated by Taliban and is becoming independent, they at
times keep army and rest of Pakistan in dark. Despite all this if we still
attempt a strong action by Army, it can cause rebellion in ranks -and even make
public sympathy go in Taliban's favour. If we do a crackdown on them now, it
will be seen as Pakistani Army is US slave.
You in US had a 9/11 as an inflection point to justify
your actions. Pakistan does not have one.
USA: So you need a 9/11
kind of an event to justify your Army to carry out a crackdown on the Taliban. OK.
Let’s see what that 9/11 for Pakistan should look
like - this event should be targeted at Army, so their actions can be
justified. It should not be killing of Army men- that is seen as victory in the war they want to be seen as fighting, and will glorify them. The act should be so
cowardly that every sympathiser of Taliban / human right activist should get
silenced. In should galvanise popular sentiment in favour of action against
Taliban. The event has to be big - especially if we want it to change the
course of history.
Hmm... Let me see what we can do, we have a few
operatives embedded in PakTaliban from Osama times, who can help.
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Coming back to published reality ie news today.
The news says Pak Taliban's attack on Army Public School leaves 141 dead - 132
of them Children. This has created massive public outrage.
Killing kids, this act is seen as act of
cowardice, not bravery. Public sentiment will go against PakTaliban in next few
days from shock to anger. My guess is if Pakistan Army kills even 500
PakTaliban militants in next one week, they can do so without any human right
violation noise. Even if they don't kill any militants, this event is likely to
reduce volunteers for the PakTaliban, and hence arrest growth in number of
militants. This event has changed PakTaliban's label from a rebel - (warriors
fighting for Islamic cause, without caring for their life) to a rougue & cowards
who kill inoocent helpless kids.
The chances of them/politicians with their
support getting elected are lower. This has reduced probability of Pakistan
becoming a rougue Nuke nation -which could have led to Pakistan being attacked
/nuked/ more bloodshed in any case.
In all probability this event has altered the
course of history for Pakistan.
Coming back to original question, so who benefits?
Answer: Pakistan benefits, US benefits,
neighbouring countries (INDIA) benefits, & world at large benefits. PakTaliban
loses.
(PakTaliban could have benefitted if they had
attacked Army garrison rather than a school.)
Cost : 141 lives in collateral damage.
Potential Benefits :
USA - Random attacks will go down, Rogue Nuke
Nation avoided
India : Same as USA, more amplified. India could
have been the first target.
World at large: Less militants to get recruited
for ISIS.
Pakistan : Current regime remains stable, can
focus on growth. Individuals may get more benefit / rewards by USA. The event may
even help create a future dictator aligned to USA (Zia ul Haq types).
Politics at international level is not about
winning wars, but about avoiding wars with minimal bloodshed.
