Alternate Truth

Today's head line says

Pakistan Taliban: Peshawar school attack leaves 141 dead

So who benefits from this attack?

Don’t tell me you think that Taliban benefits from this sad event.  

Does PakTaliban believe that they can bully Pakistan Army? Can’t they see that they are going to get a backlash?

Could there be more to it than what meets the eye?... let’s hypothesize there is more to it.

Let’s go back in time, and try and to re-create a secret discussion between USA and Pakistan.

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USA : We want you to curb these Taliban folks from operating on your soil.

PAKISTAN: We too want to limit their powers - they are a threat to us. These folks are becoming too powerful and have been able to galvanise the public sentiment. We won't be surprised if they win elections. Once they do that, they will elect the Army head / entire hierarchy of their choice. Once they are in full control, I don’t know what they will do with the nukes, but I am sure it will lead Pakistan to destruction.

USA: Why don't you clip their wings right now, the way we did? If we can come in Pakistan and kill Osama, you can certainly do better- if you want to.

PAKISTAN: Public sympathy is a big problem. They have informers even among Police, Army and Intelligence agencies to help them, Local media highlights our actions as human rights violations. ISI is dominated by Taliban and is becoming independent, they at times keep army and rest of Pakistan in dark. Despite all this if we still attempt a strong action by Army, it can cause rebellion in ranks -and even make public sympathy go in Taliban's favour. If we do a crackdown on them now, it will be seen as Pakistani Army is US slave.

You in US had a 9/11 as an inflection point to justify your actions. Pakistan does not have one.

USA: So you need a 9/11 kind of an event to justify your Army to carry out a crackdown on the Taliban. OK.

Let’s see what that 9/11 for Pakistan should look like - this event should be targeted at Army, so their actions can be justified. It should not be killing of Army men- that is seen as victory in the war they want to be seen as fighting, and will glorify them. The act should be so cowardly that every sympathiser of Taliban / human right activist should get silenced. In should galvanise popular sentiment in favour of action against Taliban. The event has to be big - especially if we want it to change the course of history.

Hmm... Let me see what we can do, we have a few operatives embedded in PakTaliban from Osama times, who can help.

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Coming back to published reality ie news today. The news says Pak Taliban's attack on Army Public School leaves 141 dead - 132 of them Children. This has created massive public outrage.

Killing kids, this act is seen as act of cowardice, not bravery. Public sentiment will go against PakTaliban in next few days from shock to anger. My guess is if Pakistan Army kills even 500 PakTaliban militants in next one week, they can do so without any human right violation noise. Even if they don't kill any militants, this event is likely to reduce volunteers for the PakTaliban, and hence arrest growth in number of militants. This event has changed PakTaliban's label from a rebel - (warriors fighting for Islamic cause, without caring for their life) to a rougue & cowards who kill inoocent helpless kids.

The chances of them/politicians with their support getting elected are lower. This has reduced probability of Pakistan becoming a rougue Nuke nation -which could have led to Pakistan being attacked /nuked/ more bloodshed in any case.

In all probability this event has altered the course of history for Pakistan.

Coming back to original question, so who benefits?

Answer: Pakistan benefits, US benefits, neighbouring countries (INDIA) benefits, & world at large benefits. PakTaliban loses.

(PakTaliban could have benefitted if they had attacked Army garrison rather than a school.)

Cost : 141 lives in collateral damage.

Potential Benefits :

USA - Random attacks will go down, Rogue Nuke Nation avoided

India : Same as USA, more amplified. India could have been the first target.

World at large: Less militants to get recruited for ISIS.

Pakistan : Current regime remains stable, can focus on growth. Individuals may get more benefit / rewards by USA. The event may even help create a future dictator aligned to USA (Zia ul Haq types).

Politics at international level is not about winning wars, but about avoiding wars with minimal bloodshed.